The politics of immigration in Britain have been dominated for a decade by a gap between what politicians promise and what the statistics subsequently show. That gap remains in 2026, though its dimensions have changed.
Where Net Migration Actually Stands
The Office for National Statistics estimates net migration to the UK at 685,000 in the year to June 2025 — lower than the record 906,000 recorded in the year to June 2023, but still substantially higher than any pre-pandemic figure and far above the "tens of thousands" promise that defined Conservative immigration policy for over a decade.
The composition of that figure matters as much as its total. Student visa holders and their dependants account for a significant proportion. Workers arriving on skilled worker visas — filling genuine vacancies in health, social care, and technology — account for another large share.
What Has Changed in Practice
Salary thresholds for skilled worker visas were raised to £38,700 in 2024 — up from £26,200 — substantially reducing the pool of eligible workers. The effect has been significant in some sectors, particularly care work, where providers warn of renewed staffing shortages.
The graduate visa route, which allows international students to remain in the UK to work for two years after graduation, has been the subject of ongoing review. Proposals to restrict it have been resisted by universities arguing they are already under financial pressure.
The Small Boats Question
Channel crossings by small boat remain a persistent political problem even as numbers have fluctuated. The deterrence strategy — legal arrangements with Rwanda, detention expansion, faster removal — has had demonstrably limited effect on overall numbers.
The Honest Assessment
Immigration policy is operating in conditions where demand to come to the UK significantly exceeds what any politically viable policy framework will accommodate. The honest choice — between accepting high immigration or accepting lower growth and worse public services — is one that no mainstream party has been willing to put directly to voters.
