A major new poll published this week shows Labour's lead over the Conservatives has narrowed to six percentage points — its smallest since the 2024 general election — as economic concerns and council tax rises weigh on government approval ratings.
The Polling Data
The survey, conducted by YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows Labour on 38% and the Conservatives on 32%, with Reform UK on 18%, the Liberal Democrats on 8%, and other parties on 4%.
The narrowing reflects a sharp fall in Labour's lead on economic competence, which has fallen from +14 points at the start of 2026 to +6 now. The issue of council tax — rising by up to 5% in many areas — is cited by 34% of respondents as a significant factor in their political views.
Government Response
A government spokesperson said the polling showed Labour remained comfortably ahead and pointed to long-term indicators including falling NHS waiting times and rising employment. The spokesperson declined to comment on the specific figures.
What the Numbers Mean
A six-point lead would, if replicated at a general election, likely produce another Labour majority — but a smaller one. The more significant finding is the trend: three consecutive months of narrowing since the Budget. The government has time to reverse this, but the trajectory will concern Downing Street.
