A new Survation poll commissioned by The Scotsman shows 52% of Scottish voters would vote Yes in a second independence referendum — excluding don't knows — the highest level of support recorded since 2021.
The Polling Breakdown
Among 18-34 year olds, support for independence reaches 64%. Among those who voted Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum, it is 61%. Both groups represent the most significant shift in the independence coalition since the first referendum in 2014.
Opposition to independence remains strongest among those over 65 (59% No), those living in rural areas (54% No), and those identifying as primarily British rather than Scottish (78% No).
The Constitutional Context
The UK government under Keir Starmer has maintained that now is not the time for a second independence referendum, holding to its predecessor's position that the 2014 vote settled the question for a generation. The SNP argues that the changed constitutional landscape since Brexit justifies revisiting the question.
What the Numbers Mean
Polling experts caution that a sustained lead of this kind is meaningful but not determinative. The 2014 campaign saw significant movement in the final weeks, and a formal campaign would be expected to shift opinion. The more significant finding is that the Brexit effect — which many analysts expected to fade — appears to have permanently shifted a portion of the Scottish electorate toward independence.
