The Brexit debate has formally ended — Britain is outside the EU and that will not change. But the terms of Britain's relationship with its largest trading partner remain very much in flux.
The Economic Cost
Multiple independent analyses now suggest Brexit has reduced UK trade by between 10% and 15% compared to a counterfactual. The OBR estimates a long-run hit to GDP of around 4%.
Areas for Improvement
The current government has identified several areas where closer cooperation would be mutually beneficial: defence and security, energy, and professional qualifications recognition.
The Politics
Any significant change to the Brexit settlement carries domestic political risk. But the economic case for pragmatic engagement is overwhelming.
