The economic impact of Brexit on UK trade has been fiercely contested since the referendum. Four years of post-departure data now allow a more evidence-based assessment.
The Trade Data
UK goods exports to the EU have fallen by approximately 15% compared to a synthetic counterfactual — the level they would have reached had the UK remained in the single market.
Services: A More Positive Story
UK financial and professional services exports have held up better than many feared, partly because the EU's passporting alternatives proved less attractive than anticipated.
Non-EU Trade
Trade deals with Australia, Japan and in principle with the Indo-Pacific have been concluded. But these markets are smaller and trade costs higher than with the EU.
The Net Assessment
Brexit has imposed a permanent but modest reduction in UK trade intensity. The question now is how to maximise trade within the existing settlement — not how to reverse it.
