The Met Office has issued its most explicit early warning yet of an exceptionally hot summer, with long-range modelling suggesting a significant probability of temperatures exceeding 38C in southern England on multiple occasions between June and August 2026.
The warning, published in the Met Office's Spring Outlook, stops short of predicting a new all-time record but notes that the underlying conditions — a La Nina to El Nino transition, the warmest sea surface temperatures ever recorded in the North Atlantic, and a persistent atmospheric ridge pattern — are "closely analogous" to those that preceded the record-breaking heat of July 2022, when 40.3C was recorded at Coningsby in Lincolnshire.
The Health Implications
The 2022 heatwave caused an estimated 2,803 excess deaths in England. NHS England has updated its heat health alert system and issued guidance to hospitals and care homes, but experts warn that many of the structural vulnerabilities that made 2022 so deadly — residential properties without mechanical cooling, an elderly population disproportionately affected by heat — have not been addressed.
Only 5% of UK homes have air conditioning, compared with 90% in the United States and 65% in southern Europe. The government's warm homes strategy focuses on insulation and heat pumps but has no specific component addressing summer overheating.
Longer-Term Implications
The prospect of consecutive record summers is being cited by urban planners, health officials, and infrastructure managers as evidence that heat adaptation — in the design of buildings, cities, public transport, and health services — needs to move from aspiration to urgency. The cost of doing nothing, measured in lives and economic disruption, is beginning to be quantified in ways that make the cost of adaptation look modest in comparison.
