The government's Planning Reform Bill is progressing through Parliament with the stated aim of delivering 1.5 million new homes by the end of the parliament — a target that Ministers describe as the most ambitious in post-war history and critics describe as mathematically implausible.
The legislation makes significant changes to the planning system: mandatory housing targets for local authorities, a presumption in favour of development in areas that have not met their targets, reform of the Green Belt concept (creating a new category of "grey belt" covering lower-quality Green Belt land), and streamlining of the planning application process.
The Numbers Problem
In 2024-25, approximately 215,000 new homes were built in England. Reaching 1.5 million over a parliament requires building at a sustained rate of 300,000 per year — a level not achieved since 1969.
The Planning Advisory Service estimates that even with all the legislative changes enacted, the realistic ceiling for new homes is 230,000-260,000 per year, constrained by labour availability in the construction sector, material costs, and the capacity of the water and sewerage infrastructure to support new development.
The Political Dimension
Local opposition to new housing — the NIMBY phenomenon — is a significant factor that legislation alone cannot address. Councils that miss their housing targets face sanctions under the bill, but the political incentives for local politicians remain strongly weighted toward restriction rather than permission.
The Green Belt Debate
The introduction of the "grey belt" concept — allowing development on previously developed Green Belt land and on lower-quality Green Belt — is the most controversial element of the bill. Critics say it will erode the protections the Green Belt was designed to provide; supporters say vast areas of Green Belt land are not the rolling countryside that the public imagines but scrubby, often contaminated ex-industrial sites that should be available for development.
