The promise of a UK-US Free Trade Agreement was one of the central arguments made by Brexit supporters in 2016. Nine years on, negotiations are continuing — but the deal that is now being discussed looks significantly different from the one that was promised.
What Was Promised
Brexiteers envisaged a comprehensive free trade agreement that would open US markets to British goods and services, compensating for any loss of access to EU markets. The economic modelling produced by its proponents suggested gains of 0.2–0.4% of GDP over fifteen years.
What Is Being Negotiated
Current negotiations focus primarily on reducing tariffs on specific goods — British steel, ceramics, and agricultural products entering the US; US manufacturing goods and agricultural products entering the UK.
The difficult issues — food standards, NHS procurement, financial services regulatory equivalence, digital services — remain unresolved and are genuinely difficult.
Food Standards: The Central Tension
The most contentious issue is food standards. American agricultural producers want access to the UK market on terms that would require the UK to accept products — chlorinated chicken, hormone-treated beef — currently prohibited under UK regulations.
The government has repeatedly said it will not lower food standards. Whether that commitment survives determined US pressure and the desire to reach a deal is the central question.
The Economic Reality
The UK's trade with the EU is approximately eight times larger than its trade with the US. A UK-US FTA that increases bilateral trade by 20% — an optimistic estimate — would represent a gain roughly equivalent to a 2.5% reduction in UK-EU trade.
