The statistics are stark. In the first quarter of 2025, 3,847 hospitality businesses in Britain ceased trading — the highest quarterly figure since records began. Restaurants account for the largest share, but pubs, hotels, and catering companies are all seeing elevated closure rates.
The Cost Stack
A restaurant operating on a 10–15% net margin — already thin by business standards — has seen its cost base transformed by several simultaneous pressures.
Food costs are 23% higher than in 2019. Energy costs, though off their peaks, remain 40% above pre-pandemic levels. Wage costs have risen as national living wage increases have accelerated. And from April 2025, employer National Insurance contributions increased — a cost that falls particularly heavily on labour-intensive businesses like restaurants.
The Demand Side
Consumer spending in hospitality remains below pre-pandemic levels in real terms. Households that are managing squeezed budgets are eating out less frequently and choosing cheaper options when they do.
The post-lockdown dining boom — driven by a combination of pent-up demand, excess savings, and the novelty of reopening — has fully unwound.
Who Is Surviving
The businesses that are thriving share certain characteristics: strong brand loyalty that commands premium pricing, operational efficiency that keeps cost ratios manageable, and often a small estate that allows agile management. Small independents with low overheads and local cult followings are outperforming mid-range chains.
