The Brexit debate has formally ended — Britain is outside the EU and that will not change. But the terms of Britain's relationship with its largest trading partner remain very much in flux.
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The Economic Cost
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Multiple independent analyses now suggest Brexit has reduced UK trade by between 10% and 15% compared to a counterfactual. The OBR estimates a long-run hit to GDP of around 4%.
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Areas for Improvement
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The current government has identified several areas where closer cooperation would be mutually beneficial: defence and security, energy, and professional qualifications recognition.
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The Politics
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Any significant change to the Brexit settlement carries domestic political risk. But the economic case for pragmatic engagement is overwhelming.
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