Reform UK Surges to 25 Percent as Local Elections Loom on 7 May
Reform UK enters the May 7 local elections holding a clear lead in national opinion polls, though its position has softened considerably from its peak of 34 percent last September. The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, compiled from fieldwork carried out between 9 and 15 April 2026, places Nigel Farage’s party on 25 percent — still six points clear of both Labour and the Conservatives, which find themselves tied on 19 percent.
The figures reveal a fractured political landscape heading into the most significant set of local contests since the 2024 general election. The Green Party, under the leadership of Zack Polanski, has matched its record-high Ipsos rating of 17 percent, while the Liberal Democrats have climbed five points in a single month to reach 14 percent.
Political analysts noted that just eight percentage points now separate the top four parties — an unprecedented degree of compression that makes seat predictions exceptionally difficult under the first-past-the-post system still used for English council elections.
“British politics is in a genuinely fractured state,” said one senior commentator at the University of Liverpool. “Reform can seriously damage the Conservatives in traditional heartlands, but this year the key test is whether they can threaten Labour in its metropolitan strongholds. The party has led national polls in England since May 2025.”
On 7 May, voters across England will choose more than 4,850 council seats, while Scotland and Wales hold simultaneous parliamentary elections for the Senedd and Holyrood respectively. The scale of the contests makes this polling day the broadest single day of devolved and local democratic participation since devolution began.
Labour insiders acknowledge the scale of potential losses. Internal assessments leaked to national newspapers earlier this month suggest the party could shed more than 400 council seats, a figure that would represent the most damaging local election result for a governing party in recent memory. Senior ministers have sought to play down expectations, arguing that local elections rarely track national polling precisely.
The Conservatives, under Kemi Badenoch, launched their local campaign from Smith Square in March, targeting councils in the South and East of England. But analysts suggest her strategy of confronting Reform on immigration and culture has largely failed to recapture voters who have migrated to Farage’s movement.
For the Greens, the elections offer a chance to convert record polling into tangible council gains. Polanski has been explicit that he is targeting at least 200 new councillor positions, focusing on urban wards where disaffected Labour voters have increasingly backed his party. In the recent Gorton and Denton by-election, the Green candidate deliberately focused on the cost of living rather than environmental themes — a tactical shift that analysts say could prove decisive.
Counting begins overnight on 7 May, with results expected to flow through the small hours of Friday 8 May.
