Opinion: Why Scottish Independence Hasn’t Gone Away — and Won’t
Some commentators, following the SNP’s mixed fortunes in recent elections and the various difficulties that have beset the party over the past three years, have suggested that the Scottish independence movement is in decline — that the dream of a separate Scottish state has passed its peak and is fading from the mainstream of Scottish political life. This analysis is almost certainly wrong, and understanding why matters both for Scottish voters and for anyone trying to understand the long-term trajectory of the United Kingdom.
The structural conditions that gave rise to and sustain the independence movement have not changed. Scotland voted Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum by a substantial margin while the United Kingdom as a whole voted Leave. Scotland has repeatedly returned governments of different compositions to Westminster than the one that takes power in London. The cultural and economic differences between Scotland and England, while sometimes overstated, are real and meaningful to the people who live with them. None of these factors are going away.
Opinion polling on independence has remained remarkably stable, hovering close to the 45 percent figure achieved at the 2014 referendum with movement in both directions at different times depending on political context. The consistency of the figure is itself significant: it suggests that approximately half of Scottish voters support independence as a settled preference rather than a temporary reaction to specific policy grievances that might be addressed by the Union’s governing parties.
What has changed is the short-term political vehicle for independence sentiment. The SNP’s difficulties — policy controversies, the Salmond-Sturgeon split, financial investigations — have damaged the party’s standing without reducing underlying support for independence itself. If the SNP underperforms at Holyrood, it will reflect voters’ assessment of the party’s governance record rather than their view on constitutional status. The question will not disappear; it will simply await the next political moment to reassert itself.
